fig. 1 intensity-use of steel and cement, China fig. 2 schematic diagram of social consumption intensity changes of copper and aluminum in China (omitted)
fig. 2 intensity-use of copper and aluminum, China fig. 3 schematic diagram of changes in social consumption intensity of major energy and mineral products in China (omitted)
fig. 3 intensity-use of key energy mineral, China After more than 4 years of struggle, China has built a relatively complete mining production and supply system. At present, China has nearly 1, state-owned mines and more than 27, township collective mines and individual small mines. In 1995, the national ore mining volume reached more than 5.3 billion t. Among them, there are nearly 1.3 billion tons of coal, 15 million tons of crude oil, 18 billion m3 of natural gas and 26 million tons of iron ore. Although China is rich in mineral resources and is a major mining producer in the world at present, compared with the huge consumption growth caused by China's rapid industrialization development, it is still a big problem in the national economic development to meet the mineral resources demand of the whole society with domestic production. In terms of energy and mineral supply, coal production has generally exceeded sales for decades. However, due to the contradiction between China's industrial production and the regional distribution of coal resources, and the limitation of transportation capacity, the coal supply in the main consumption areas in the east and south has been in a tight state, resulting in a regional coal supply shortage. In recent years, with the sustained and high-speed development of domestic economy, the demand for oil and products has increased strongly, but at this time, China's oil production has entered a period of slow growth, and the shortage of supply has become increasingly obvious. As a result, China became a net importer of petroleum products in 1993, which does not include the import of petrochemical products such as fertilizer, ethylene and chemical fiber worth 1 billion US dollars. In terms of metal mineral supply, China's iron ore, especially rich iron ore, is in short supply. Since the end of 197s, China's iron ore imports have been increasing year by year, reaching 4 million tons in 1995, making China's iron ore external dependence reach 1/6. Like iron ore production, the supply of manganese ore is basically self-sufficient, but the consumption of manganese-rich ore still needs to be imported. Chromite resources are seriously insufficient, mainly relying on imports. The contradiction between supply and demand of copper ore in nonferrous metals is very sharp, and it takes a lot of foreign exchange imports every year. Tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony and rare earth are the dominant minerals in China. Besides meeting domestic demand, a large number of products enter the international market every year. In terms of non-metallic minerals, the supply of metallurgical auxiliary raw materials minerals is good, among which fluorite and magnesite are the bulk minerals that the country exports to earn foreign exchange. The supply of sulfur and sodium salts in chemical raw materials can basically meet the domestic demand, and a small amount is exported. At present, under the condition of small domestic processing capacity, the supply of phosphate ore can basically meet the market requirements, and a small amount is exported, but a considerable part of domestic phosphate fertilizer supply still depends on imports. The supply of potassium salt in China has been in short supply for a long time, so we have to rely on imports. Building materials and other non-metallic minerals not only meet the domestic market supply, but also most of them, such as cement, flat glass, graphite, talc, stone and barite, have become important export products. In fact, as far as the degree of protection of China's resource reserves is concerned, the situation is quite grim. First of all, although the proven reserves of most pillar minerals in China are considerable, the existing recoverable reserves are tight and the resource situation is grim. For example, China's coal, phosphorus, lead, zinc, iron, copper, aluminum, uranium, sulfur, oil and other mineral reserves rank among the top in the world, but the recoverable reserves are only 21% ~ 5% of the proven reserves (coal), of which iron, copper, gold and potassium salt are not self-sufficient, and oil and lead ore are facing the trend of production reduction because the reserve-production ratio is less than 3. Secondly, the export advantages of some traditional export minerals may be gradually lost. Among the nine traditional export minerals, such as tungsten, tin, antimony, talc, fluorite, rare earth, magnesite, molybdenum and graphite, the first five minerals have expanded their exports in order to earn more foreign exchange in recent ten years, and the high-quality ore and low-cost reserves have been consumed quickly, and the reserve-production ratio has dropped to 31 (antimony ore) ~ 6 (tungsten ore), which has reached the critical line where it is difficult to increase production. Without effective measures, it is predicted that the export capacity will drop sharply after 2 or 25. Thirdly, due to the lack of reasonable development and effective management, the loss and waste of recoverable resources are very serious, which are mainly manifested in: ① the recovery rate is generally low. At present, the average total recovery rate of mineral resources in China is only 3% ~ 5%, which is not only lower than 1% ~ 2% in developed countries, but also lower than the domestic level in the 196s. Therefore, the loss of recoverable reserves of coal resources in 1995 alone was as high as 2 billion t; (2) The competition for resources has intensified. By the end of 1994, there were nearly 1, small coal mines illegally exploited within the scope of state-owned key coal mines, destroying recoverable reserves of 2.8 billion t. Under this backward resource development and management condition, the greater the production scale of mineral resources, the more waste and loss will be caused, and the more damage will be caused to the ecological environment. If it is not solved early, it will surely become a "black hole" that China's limited mineral and environmental resources can never fill; (3) Due to the unreasonable economic structure and backward production technology, the benefit of input and output of mineral resources is low at present. For example, the energy consumption per unit GDP in China is 4-9 times higher than that in developed countries. The early 21st century (2-22) is a crucial period for China's national economic and social development, which mainly shows as follows: although the population is growing at a low level, the total population may still exceed 1.5 billion in 22, further approaching the peak; The national economy continues to maintain rapid growth, the total economic output may exceed 6 trillion US dollars, and the per capita GDP is close to that of middle-income countries. Great changes will take place in the industrial structure, and the proportion of the primary industry in GDP will be greatly reduced (< 1%), and the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries will be roughly equal (45% each). As pillar industries, construction, electromechanical, chemical and related industries, such as building materials, will be given priority. It is these development characteristics that promote the total consumption of mineral resources in China to increase obviously. According to the forecast of the relevant state departments, the demand for major mineral resources in China will be doubled by 22 [2]. Up to now, only coal, gold mine, petroleum, uranium, natural gas and marl with current recoverable depth have been systematically predicted in China, and the total predicted resources are 4, 5, 6, 1, 22 and 78 times of their respective proven reserves. According to the national department of geology and mineral resources, among the 45 major minerals in China, 24 may increase their reserves by .4 ~ 1.4 times of the proven reserves by 21; Another 11 kinds of minerals can basically meet the future demand due to proven reserves, and there is no need to increase more reserves; Only 1 minerals, such as iron, chromium, nickel, tungsten, cobalt, platinum group, boron, talc, diamond and potassium salt, have not been quantitatively analyzed, or their newly added reserves are limited [3]. From the perspective of total analysis, China's mineral resources still have great potential, and most of them can meet the needs of national economic construction: ① There are 1 kinds of minerals with rich resources and proven reserves that can meet the demand in 22, such as coal, magnesium, ilmenite, molybdenum, rare earth, magnesite, mirabilite, sodium salt, gypsum and bentonite; (2) There are 8 kinds of minerals with abundant resources and proven reserves that can meet or basically meet the demand in 22, such as tin, refractory clay, phosphorus, glass siliceous raw materials, diatomite, decorative stone, graphite and asbestos; (3) There are abundant resources, and the proven reserves can meet the demand in 22, including tungsten, barite, strontium, kaolin and wollastonite. ④ There are abundant resources, and the proven reserves can meet the demand in 21, including 9 kinds of minerals such as natural gas, uranium, lead, antimony, silver, fluorite, pyrite, boron and cement limestone. ⑤ There are 9 kinds of minerals, such as petroleum, iron, manganese, copper, bauxite, nickel, cobalt, talc and gold, whose proven reserves and newly increased reserves can only meet most of the demand in 2 or 21; ⑥ The resource prospect is limited, and there are four kinds of minerals with serious proved reserves, such as platinum group, chromium, potassium salt and diamond. As oil, natural gas, uranium, iron, copper, bauxite, gold and sylvite, which are related to the national economy and people's livelihood, have limited reserves or poor quality, the prospect of mineral resources, especially energy, in China is not optimistic. 4 Countermeasures and Suggestions Due to the short history of industrialization in China and the limited investment in capital and technology for modern geological exploration, the effective control of mineral resources reserves is still quite extensive on the whole. On the one hand, except for the overall pattern of iron-rich resources, there is still considerable potential for resource growth of other minerals, especially in energy, non-ferrous metals and non-metallic minerals. On the other hand, although the proven reserves of most major minerals are considerable, the recoverable reserves are tight and the resource situation is not optimistic. The contradiction between supply and demand of domestic minerals will become a long-term problem that puzzles China's future social and economic development. The limited per capita mineral resources is the result of the simultaneous evolution of China's natural environment and social history. In addition to relying on the wisdom and hard work of contemporary and future generations to make up for this, it is timely.