The first is debt as the core. The influencing factors of local fiscal risks mainly include social environment, economic environment, policy environment, institutional environment and financing environment. The impact of these factors is ultimately reflected in current and potential fiscal fund requirements. If current fiscal revenue cannot meet these funding needs, finance can only be met through financing, which is manifested as an increase in fiscal debt. The above factors will eventually be expressed in the form of debt, so the research object of the fiscal risk early warning system is fiscal debt. It mainly includes fiscal direct debt and fiscal contingent debt. Direct debt refers to government debt that will occur under any circumstances and has a definite amount. It can be calculated through some specific basic parameters. For example, the government’s external debt burden can be calculated through the borrowing amount, currency, Interest rates, terms and exchange rates are calculated; contingent debt refers to government debt based on a certain contingent event. The probability of its occurrence and the resulting scale of fiscal expenditures depend on the occurrence of a certain contingent event, such as a natural disaster. , banking crisis, etc. After determining that debt is the research object of the local fiscal risk early warning system, the main problem that needs to be solved is how to define debt to determine the extension of debt and make the research object concrete. Contingent liabilities are extensive and uncertain, and lack necessary statistical data and technical support. For example, for the risks of local financial institutions, it is necessary to grasp the specific financial indicators of the operating conditions of local financial institutions; for the financial risks caused by the transformation of state-owned enterprises, it is necessary to analyze the policies related to the reform of state-owned enterprises, the operating conditions and financial conditions of the enterprises themselves; the cost of social security reform needs to be analyzed. There are also many issues involved, and it is difficult to accurately determine the responsibilities of local governments. Therefore, the financial risks arising from contingent liabilities should be studied separately, and the system should be supplemented in the form of additional reports for leadership to refer to when making decisions. Due to the sharp contradiction between revenue and expenditure during the fiscal operation, the deficit formed includes two parts, hard deficit and soft deficit. The hard deficit refers to the local fiscal revenue and expenditure gap in the form of wage arrears, debt arrears, etc.; the soft deficit refers to the local fiscal insufficient investment in necessary public facilities and public services. The way to deal with hard deficits is to consider each hard deficit as a new debt, and at the same time, this debt will be included in overdue debt.

The second is project-based. Fiscal debt is ultimately manifested in some specific projects, which is the micro-foundation of fiscal risk management and the ultimate goal of fiscal risk management.

Classify projects according to their funding sources and funding directions, analyze the requirements of different projects for fiscal budget funds, and determine the risk level of each type of project; determine the risk level of each project based on the specific attributes of the project: amount, term, interest rate, exchange rate, etc. The fiscal expenditure status of such projects and the payment requirements of general budget revenue are determined, and the risk position of debt is used as a reference indicator to determine the risk