A proactive and loose fiscal policy and a prudent and moderately loose monetary policy.
Monetary policy is a variety of policies and measures used by the central bank to adjust the money supply using various tools to achieve established goals, thereby affecting macroeconomic operations. It mainly includes credit policy and interest rate policy. Shrinking credit and raising interest rates are "tight" monetary policies, which can suppress total social demand, but restrict investment and short-term development. On the contrary, they are "loose" monetary policies, which can expand total social demand. , which is good for investment and short-term development, but can easily cause an increase in inflation. Fiscal policy includes national tax policy and fiscal expenditure policy. Tax increases and expenditure cuts are "tight" fiscal policies, which can reduce the total social demand, but are detrimental to investment. On the contrary, a "loose" fiscal policy is conducive to investment, but the expansion of total social demand can easily lead to inflation.
Economic situation: The dilemma between slowing economic growth and continued high CPI.
Policy fine-tuning: lower the deposit reserve ratio, lower the benchmark interest rate, allow the deposit interest rate to rise to 10%, and conduct trial trials of interest rate marketization reforms.
Based on the current situation in our country, I think: overall it is a double easing, but the easing of monetary policy must be slow, and appropriate relaxation can be achieved through a combination of loosening and tightening. Fiscal policy needs to be relaxed.
1. GDP growth fell from 9.7% in the first quarter of 2011 to 9.5% in the second quarter and 9.1% in the third quarter. Slowing economic growth will cause a series of social problems, mainly unemployment and social stability problems caused by unemployment. Through appropriate relaxation of monetary policy, the purpose of boosting the economy, solving employment, stabilizing employee income, and stabilizing society can be achieved. However, loosening monetary policy will cause a certain increase in the scale of credit. First, it solves the capital chain problem of enterprises. In today's world where private small and medium-sized enterprises are the main GDP creators, the effect may not be obvious; second, in an environment with high readiness ratio, financial institutions Certain practices of bypassing monetary policy have been formed through the innovation of financial instruments, and the actual effect of monetary policy has been compromised.
2. The implementation of fiscal policies such as the issuance of local fiscal bonds has squeezed out the release of monetary liquidity, expanded investment but reduced consumption. The mixed use of expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy keeps market interest rates stable. When the CPI is high, deposit and loan interest rates should not be significantly loosened, otherwise this year's regulation (especially the regulation of housing prices) will be costly. flow eastwards.
The coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy is an objective requirement and necessary condition for achieving national macroeconomic management goals. However, the effectiveness of the coordination of the two major policies not only depends on the correct determination of the matching method of the two major policies and their specific operations, but also depends to a large extent on the coordination of the external environment.
For example, there needs to be coordination of industrial policy, income distribution policy, foreign trade policy, social welfare policy and other other policies; a good international environment and a stable domestic social and political environment; a reasonable price system and the operation of enterprises (including financial enterprises) mechanism; it also requires the support and cooperation of various ministries, departments and local governments