It has become the focus of "dual control of energy consumption" and has a great impact on short-term operations.
The "Opinions" emphasize that our country will continue to strengthen Double control of energy consumption intensity and total amount. According to the opinions, we must adhere to the energy development strategy that prioritizes energy conservation, strictly control energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission intensity, reasonably control total energy consumption, and coordinate the establishment of a total carbon dioxide emission control system.
From this point of view, my country's "dual energy consumption control" policy will be adhered to for a long time. What coal chemical companies hope is that local governments must not implement this policy. Adopt "one size fits all" and "campaign" carbon reduction behaviors to allow coal chemical companies to either transform and upgrade or exit in an orderly manner.
In fact, since this year, some places have implemented "one size fits all" and "sports-style" carbon reduction actions, and the "dual control of energy consumption" policy has continued to become stricter and stricter. Businesses are hurting. For example, a large coal chemical company has been affected by the local government's dual control policy many times this year. In March, the local government required the company to significantly reduce the power consumption every day. After the power limit, the company was unable to meet the minimum load power demand. After communication with no results, the company was forced to Park according to government requirements. Three other companies around this company also suffered the same fate and were forced to suspend production one after another. In early September this year, it was asked to stop production on the grounds that the energy consumption quota had been exhausted. Just starting and stopping like this, intermittently, the original benefits were not good, and now it is even worse.
On August 12 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Barometer of Completion of Dual Energy Consumption Targets in Various Regions in the First Half of 2021", which shows that my country includes Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, etc. The energy consumption intensity of 9 provinces (autonomous regions) increased instead of falling in the first half of the year, and was listed as a red first-level warning; 8 provinces (autonomous regions) including Guangdong, Fujian, and Yunnan were listed as a red first-level warning in terms of total energy consumption control. Affected by this, since the third quarter, the above-mentioned provinces and regions that have issued red first-level warnings have launched thunderous measures to restrict the "two high" industries. And because the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for energy consumption, those provinces (autonomous regions) that have achieved better dual-control targets for energy consumption in the first half of the year also dare not take it lightly, and have begun to increase their focus on industries included in the "two high" list. control. For a time, almost all coal chemical projects were restricted, the current status of the industry was gloomy, and confidence in industry development was once again frustrated.
The "one-size-fits-all, campaign-style "carbon reduction" approach in various regions has seriously restricted the survival and development of the coal chemical industry, and has brought great consequences to the operation of enterprises and the normal development of the economy. Negative impact. The most direct impact is that some places have restricted coal supply and reduced power supply to coal chemical companies, which has caused great trouble to coal chemical companies that are operating normally, causing many companies to suspend or semi-stop production. The entire modern coal chemical industry Facing a life-and-death test
Being included in the "Two High Projects" has no future for long-term development
The "Opinions" emphasized. : Resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects. Introduce capacity control policies for coal power, petrochemicals, coal chemicals and other industries that are not included in the national industry plan for relevant fields. No new construction, reconstruction or expansion of oil refining, ethylene, paraxylene, or coal-based manufacturing will be allowed. Olefin projects. Reasonably control the scale of coal-to-oil and gas production and improve energy consumption access standards for high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects.
It is not difficult to see that the "Opinions" list coalification work as a The “Two High Projects” directly name coal-to-olefins and coal-to-oil and gas projects. The State Council also clearly requires in the “Plan”: Resolutely curb the blind development of the “Two High” projects and take strong measures against the “Two High” projects. Projects implement list management, classified disposal, and dynamic monitoring.
In my country's coal chemical industry, traditional coal chemical industry has long been listed as a two-high project and restricted development from 2021. Starting from 2018, "two high" projects such as coke (blue carbon), calcium carbide, polyvinyl chloride, synthetic ammonia (urea), methanol, and ethylene glycol will no longer be approved; Guangdong Province will ban coal chemical industries with annual comprehensive energy consumption exceeding 10,000 tons of standard coal. , coking and other projects are included in the "two high" project management ledger; Shaanxi Province has also introduced a series of specific measures such as limiting production of "two high" projects
my country's modern coal. Chemical industry generally refers to four industrial paths: coal-to-olefins, coal-to-oil, coal-to-gas, and coal-to-ethylene glycol. Among them, coal-to-olefins is the best-performing path in modern coal chemical industry and has the fastest development. According to statistics, the total domestic coal-to-olefin production capacity reached 11.2 million tons per year in 2020, and the production capacity is still being further released. Especially in the first half of this year, many companies have really made a profit due to the sharp rise in market prices. For "star" projects in the chemical industry, the "Opinions" stipulate that "no new construction, reconstruction or expansion" is allowed, which means that the "stock projects" of coal-to-olefins can continue to operate, but no "incremental" projects are allowed to appear in the future. The development prospects of the coal-to-olefins industry have become very clear, and the idea of trying to launch coal-to-olefins again can be given up.
The "Opinions" require "reasonable control of the scale of coal-to-oil and gas production capacity." In fact, my country's coal-to-oil and gas production capacity is not large, with a coal-to-oil production capacity of 9.21 million tons. /year, the coal-to-gas production capacity is 5.1 billion cubic meters per year. Due to the high investment, poor economics, and high risks of coal-to-oil and gas projects, companies generally have a weak willingness to develop. Some previously approved projects are basically in a wait-and-see state. Some They don’t even plan to continue to push forward, and even if they don’t control it, few are willing to do this kind of project again.
The supply of coal is “short in quantity and high in price”, and companies generally “cannot have enough to eat”
The "Opinions" propose to speed up The pace of coal reduction is to strictly control the growth of coal consumption during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and gradually reduce it during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. This shows that the "peak" of my country's coal consumption will arrive in 2025.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the sudden shortage of coal supply, coal chemical companies are generally "not full." The "Opinions" have made many companies further realize that in the future, "short supply and high price" of coal will become a key bottleneck restricting the development of coal chemical industry.
The main reason behind the sudden "power outage" crisis that has affected more than 20 provinces and cities in my country since the third quarter of this year is the lack of coal.
my country's coal chemical industry has become the industry that consumes the most coal after coal power and is the second largest user of coal. According to statistics, my country's total annual coal consumption is 4.08 billion tons, of which 3.4 billion tons are consumed for power generation, accounting for 83% of total coal consumption; the remaining 17% is mainly coal for coal chemical industry, accounting for more than 500 million tons.
In some coal-rich areas, the coal chemical industry has developed much faster than the rate of coal production capacity release, causing the originally abundant coal production to suddenly become tense. Take eastern Mongolia as an example. It is my country's main lignite producing area with abundant reserves. In the past, coal was cheaper than Bai Lai. In 2005, the local lignite price was only a few dozen yuan per ton, but now it is more than 300 yuan per ton. Due to the launch of many large-scale coal chemical projects and coal power projects, coal tension in the region has lasted for many years. Both power generation projects and coal chemical projects are "half-dead" due to lack of coal. Due to the shortage of coal, the price has increased. As a result, many local coal chemical projects are having a hard time due to lack of coal. It is difficult to ensure production load and the companies continue to suffer losses. Coal power projects are also unable to generate electricity normally due to lack of coal. It is understood that some pit-head power plants are unable to meet coal demand. , This is by no means unique to eastern Mongolia. For example, there are long queues of coal trucks in Yulin and Shenmu, Shaanxi, and Ordos, Inner Mongolia. Many coal-rich areas in our country have a tense situation of coal supply exceeding demand.
Since the second half of this year, international crude oil prices have been rising, and domestic bulk chemical commodities have remained high, which is a great benefit to the coal chemical industry. Almost all coal chemical projects are profitable, and high Oil prices have supported a significant increase in the coal chemical industry's operating rate. As a result, coal chemical industry companies across the country have gone all out to seize market opportunities. As a result, the coal chemical industry's operating rate is much higher than in the past few years, and the coal chemical industry's demand for coal is estimated to be stronger. According to some estimates, if oil prices remain at a relatively high level during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the coal consumption in the coal chemical industry will increase by 50 million tons in 2021, with an average monthly increase of more than 4 million tons. An increase of approximately 120 million tons.
Recently, the state is increasing its intervention in the coal market. On October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission launched a plan to release coal production capacity to alleviate the current energy crisis. Through eight measures, including steadily increasing coal production and guiding coal prices back to reasonable levels, the coal tension situation has begun to improve, and the "power cuts" in various places have improved. All efforts cannot be accomplished in one go. If the relevant departments ignore the rigid demand for coal from the coal chemical industry when considering total coal quantity control, the phenomenon of "shortage in quantity and high price" of coal will continue to exist for a long time.