The situation in eastern Ukraine has escalated again

Recently, exchanges of fire between the Ukrainian authorities and eastern anti-government civil forces have become normal, and the "Minsk ceasefire agreement" has been broken again. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced that the situation had escalated and issued a presidential order allowing government forces to open fire. Affected by the situation in Syria, the focus of the international community has gradually shifted to the Middle East, and the crisis in Ukraine will become protracted.

The ceasefire agreement was violated again

In February this year, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France discussed comprehensive measures for a long-term political solution to the Ukrainian crisis in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. An agreement was reached on the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Since then, sporadic conflicts have continued in eastern Ukraine, with both sides accusing the other of violating the "Minsk ceasefire agreement."

On October 2, the leaders of the four countries held peace talks on Ukraine in Paris. After the meeting, Ukrainian President Poroshenko announced that the withdrawal of weapons and equipment near the contact area would begin on October 3. Since then, both sides have successively withdrawn weapons from the contact area, and a ceasefire has been achieved in eastern Ukraine.

However, since November, fighting incidents have increased significantly. Both sides have publicly stated that the situation in the east may intensify, and have accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement.

Turchynov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, spoke to the outside world in Kiev on the 11th, saying that the peace process in eastern Ukraine is on the critical edge of being undermined. Turchynov accused the anti-government civil forces in eastern Ukraine of undermining the peace process, saying that the short-lived peace in eastern Ukraine could be broken at any time and the peace situation was very fragile. The anti-government civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine denied the above accusations, saying that the responsibility for the current situation lies with the Ukrainian government forces.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko issued a presidential order on the 11th, allowing Ukrainian government troops to open fire when their lives are threatened. At the same time, he said that the risks and threats to Ukraine's national security and territorial integrity have increased sharply. On the 15th, Poroshenko officially announced that the situation in eastern Ukraine had escalated, saying that the Ukrainian government forces were preparing to fire back.

According to Ukrainian media reports, the tripartite contact group talks on Ukraine will be held in Minsk on the 17th. Previously, Denis Pushilin, a representative of the "Donetsk Democratic Republic", said that the situation escalated because some Ukrainian government troops were sowing discord. These soldiers did not accept Kiev's management and took the lead in opening fire.

Ukraine held local elections on October 25 in accordance with the new version of the "Local Election Law". The election work was basically completed, and the results were released recently. However, the eastern cities of Mariupol and Krasnoarmysk, which were supposed to hold elections in accordance with the law, canceled voting for some reason. These two eastern cities are of strategic importance. In response, Ukrainian President Poroshenko signed a law specifically targeting the holding of local elections in the two cities, stipulating that the two places will hold elections on the 29th of this month.

Analysts believe that the renewed escalation of the situation in Ukraine is closely related to the sudden change in the situation in Syria. Since Russia launched anti-terrorism air strikes in Syria on September 30, a new round of competition between the United States, Europe and Russia has begun. The Ukraine crisis has a linkage effect with the European refugee issue and the fight against the "Islamic State". The balance and common sense established by all parties on the Ukraine crisis have been broken. Next, all parties will inevitably launch a new round of bargaining around the Ukraine issue.

The Ukrainian presidential website published news on the 13th that US Vice President Biden will visit Ukraine again in early December and will meet with Ukrainian President Poroshenko, Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, members of the Verkhovna Rada and society Organize representatives to meet. This will be Biden’s fifth visit to Ukraine since taking office.

The debt problem between Ukraine and Russia needs to be resolved urgently

During the administration of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Russia purchased US$3 billion in treasury bonds from Ukraine, which will mature in December this year. On November 9, the Russian and Ukrainian Finance Ministers held negotiations on Ukraine's repayment of Russia's US$3 billion debt, but no debt restructuring agreement was reached. The Ukrainian authorities stated that they were unable to repay the debt, saying that it was a commercial debt, and proposed debt restructuring within the framework of the agreement. Russia stated that this is a national debt and should be paid off within the time limit, otherwise Ukraine will be declared in default.

The Russian authorities stated that if Ukraine defaults on the contract, it will take Ukraine to court. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that if Ukraine cannot repay its debts in December, Moscow is ready to resort to the international arbitration court and the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine's last loan interest payment was in June 2015, and Russia now expects Ukraine to completely repay the loan in December this year.

Russian Deputy Minister of Finance Sergei Stolchak said on November 10: “We ultimately want to solve the problem and do not want to let Ukraine, a borrower with potential in the financial market, They should not always depend on loans from international financial organizations to live with major consequences.

"He also pointed out: "This is a choice, either to pay off the loan on time.