The latest data released today shows that in the first quarter of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 105,000 and 114,000 respectively, down 60.2% and 56.4% year-on-year. The spread of the global epidemic, the decline in international crude oil prices, the ebbing of national subsidy policies, and other reasons have all led to the decline in sales of new energy vehicles.
With the current economic recession, all walks of life have entered a cold winter, and this is especially true for the new energy vehicle industry. There are many voices that denigrate new energy vehicles.
However, in addition to the impact of the general environment, the sluggish sales volume is also an important reason for the inaccurate positioning of the brand itself and the poor quality. The reduction in the proportion of policy subsidies has caused pure electric vehicles to lose their price advantage. Although they face huge challenges, they Opportunities coexist, but there are still ways to break the situation.
Cobalt and other raw materials face the risk of supply interruption
Affected by the epidemic, mining exploration companies and collaborative business units in other countries and regions such as Australia and Chile, which are important producers of lithium for power battery raw materials, , are strictly restricting travel, and Congo, the main producer of raw material cobalt, is also facing production suspension. The instability of the raw material supply chain and product prices has caused the stock prices of Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt to fall significantly. The former is a supplier to companies such as LG Chem and Tesla, while the latter provides raw materials to CATL and BYD. Affected by this, the stock price of new energy vehicle industry giant Tesla plummeted during the session.
With the gradual development of technology, the emergence of low-cobalt or even cobalt-free batteries makes cobalt no longer a factor restricting the development of batteries. BYD's cobalt-free blade batteries have entered mass production, and Tesla has also officially announced that it will manufacture its own cobalt-free batteries, which will not only reduce costs and increase battery capacity, but also improve battery safety. In addition, the battery cost basically accounts for 40% of the cost of pure electric vehicles. If the battery cost can be significantly reduced, then the selling price of pure electric vehicles is expected to drop to the same level as that of fuel vehicles.
The new energy subsidy policy is declining
The new energy subsidy policies released by the four ministries and commissions recently have also caused a lot of discussion among major car companies. It is good to extend the new energy subsidy for two years, but 30 The subsidy threshold of 10,000 yuan also makes many mid-to-high-end pure electric SUVs slightly embarrassed. Some people say this is helping Tesla fight against new domestic car-making forces, while others say it gives domestic electric vehicles a slight price advantage. But in general, it is also a support policy for the state to rescue the market and encourage consumers to buy enthusiastically.
In cities such as Beijing where lottery tickets are used to buy fuel vehicles, people who need to buy a car are more likely to want to seize the tail end of new energy subsidies and make a timely decision during the transition period. For potential consumers who purchase pure electric vehicles under 300,000 yuan, the impact is basically negligible.
From another perspective, it is time for pure electric vehicles to break away from the umbrella of national policies and rely on their own strength to conquer the market. In recent years, state subsidies for new energy vehicles have also been an important factor in their rapid development. However, mature industries cannot always rely on the support of national policies. They must first make their products of high quality before they can compete with traditional cars and truly make electric vehicles a reality. Cars have entered the public eye.
Falling crude oil prices
The recent downturn in international oil prices has cast another cloud over the already sluggish new energy vehicle market in 2020. The drop in crude oil prices has caused oil prices to drop to an exaggerated level. If the international oil price falls below 40 US dollars, China will trigger the floor price. The joke that "water is more expensive than crude oil" has become a reality. Many people are considering buying electric cars because of oil prices. Consumers are turning their attention to traditional cars again. Compared with fuel vehicles, the advantage of pure electric vehicles is that the vehicle cost is lower. At first glance, it seems that new energy vehicles no longer have advantages.
But oil prices have never only been the main factor affecting the new energy market. Needless to say, countries with large oil reserves have high oil prices and low electricity prices. From the original intention, the development of new energy vehicles is not for Instead of saving fuel or money, increasingly severe environmental problems require us to reduce carbon emissions.
More and more countries have formulated long-term plans, and the timetables set by major car companies for the withdrawal of fuel vehicles from the market also confirm this. For example, BMW suspended the research and development of traditional fuel engines and turned to electric drive and Battery; Mercedes-Benz has also officially announced that all its traditional fuel vehicles will be discontinued before 2022, and all models produced will only provide hybrid or pure electric versions. It can be said that it is quite narrow-minded to sentence the new energy industry to death based on the decline in crude oil prices.
However, there is no doubt that the decline in crude oil prices will have an impact on the new energy industry. After all, fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles have always had a trade-off relationship. When the cost of fuel vehicles drops to that of electric vehicles, When the cars are of similar level, everyone will definitely prefer them. Of course, we all know that the drop in crude oil prices is closely related to this year's COVID-19 epidemic. Although the domestic epidemic has been basically eliminated, the situation abroad is not very optimistic, which has brought about a significant reduction in oil consumption and caused changes in oil prices. In the long run, oil prices will not remain low. At least when the epidemic is effectively controlled, oil prices will inevitably rise.
But who can say that this is not a driving force for the new energy vehicle industry? The shortcoming of new energy vehicles has always been the issue of cruising range. The drop in oil prices will also bring a sense of crisis to major car companies, speeding up the pace of launching new cars and improving cruising range. Technology has always developed in competition, and opponents are often the best catalysts.
Of course, there are also countries mediating.
In the middle of this month, the State Grid Corporation of China announced the launch of a new round of charging pile construction. It plans to invest 2.7 billion yuan in charging pile construction and add 78,000 new charging piles, covering as many as 24 provinces and cities. This move is also stimulating the consumption of new energy vehicles and driving the development of the industrial chain. In the next four years, China Southern Power Grid will also invest 25.1 billion yuan in charging facilities and plans to build 150 large-scale centralized charging stations and 380,000 charging piles, more than 10 times the existing number.
Although domestic new energy vehicles currently face various challenges, in general there are ways to break the situation. The two-year extension of the national new energy subsidy policy also proves that this industry still has considerable potential. Coupled with the rapid development of current technology, electric vehicle batteries are also constantly making breakthroughs and innovations. The new energy vehicle industry, which has ended its honeymoon period, needs to prove its ability to stand alone in the market. Nowadays, new energy vehicles are no longer novel to the public, and visible advantages are the last word to attract consumers to buy.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.